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Using Per36 Stats to Find Breakout Candidates

silentjimsilentjim Member, Moderator, Commish - Bonanza Keeper League, Commish - Salary Cap League, League - Battle of the Sports Forums Posts: 517 mod

@JoshShep50 posted a discussion on breakout candidates for next season and one of best ways to track and evaluate young talent and guys fitting into new teams, is to look at their per 36 minute production and associated value.

Most elite players, those in the first round value area, have similar if not the same value in per36 as they do in the per game ranks. Mostly because a lot of those guys are getting 36-ish minutes a game anyway and are exponentially greater than their lesser counterparts. Stephen Curry, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Chris Paul, and Russell Westbrook round out the top respectively. Lebron James doesn’t crack the top 25 for reference.

We then have the per 36 minute studs who just never seem to pan out and make massive strides but are still at least a bit alluring. Brandan Wright for example is still cranking out top 10 per 36 value, but because he’s only averaging 18 minutes a game it makes it hard for him to be that valuable unless he fits a punt build perfect. George Hill is another guy who a lot of people had pegged as a good sleeper/value pick this season, but because of injuries he really fell off a bit. But his per 36 ranks put him top 20 for the season.

Lastly we get the guys who might actually have some good value next season that don’t fit into the first two categories. Mike Scott is someone who’s had some injury issues this season, but was cracks the top 100 in per 36 where his per game value is pretty terrible. Depending on what Atlanta does personnel wise in the off season, Scott might be a guy worth taking a late round flier on.

Cole Aldrich also fits the same kind of mold and for a brief time his name was being brought up with the Hassan Whiteside’s and Rudy Gobert’s of the world and we all know how that worked out. But that doesn’t mean the fantasy value isn’t there. In the per 36 world ranks Aldrich caps out in the top 30.

Nikola Mirotic is the final guy I want to touch base on and it’s a delicate balance with him. He’s been playing so well of late it’s hard to argue with him, but you’re also talking about a Bulls team that still has Noah, Gasol, and Taj Gibson under contract and Mirotic has really thrived with one of the three big hurt and Rose and Butler out for stretches. Is he evolving, growing, and showing us what he can be? Definitely. Will that translate to fantasy for next season? I’m not sure. I think the name recognition in a big market might also force his value higher than I’d be comfortable with taking from a gamble standpoint, but until we see some mocks or ADPs its possible Mirotic could pay some big dividends.

Comments

  • JoshShep50JoshShep50 Moderator Posts: 75 mod

    Good stuff as always, @silentjim. I'd love to see Alexis Ajinca on another team. He's such a talented scorer and rebounder whenever he gets extended run.

  • silentjimsilentjim Member, Moderator, Commish - Bonanza Keeper League, Commish - Salary Cap League, League - Battle of the Sports Forums Posts: 517 mod

    @JoshShep50 said:
    Good stuff as always, silentjim. I'd love to see Alexis Ajinca on another team. He's such a talented scorer and rebounder whenever he gets extended run.

    For sure. When AD was out for an extended amount of time, he was more than serviceable in standard leagues.

  • JoshShep50JoshShep50 Moderator Posts: 75 mod

    When I saw Brandan Wright's monster line last night, my first thought was of this thread. What an efficient big. I don't obviously think he could keep up his pace, but I really would love to see him get 30-35 minutes a game somewhere.

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