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Keeper Question

snakehuynhsnakehuynh Member, League - Salary Cap League Posts: 123

3 Keepers
9 Cat H2H, 12 team

Lebron James
Ricky Rubio
Victor Oladipo
Pau Gasol
Tim Duncan
Greg Monroe

Keep 3, Leaning towards James/Rubio/Oladipo
who do you think I should be keeping.

Comments

  • daseindasein Member, League - Heroes Keeper League, Commish - Salary Cap League Posts: 1,008

    How likely are you to pick up someone with long-term prospects as good as or better than Oladipo during the draft/season? With only 36 kept, I'd say your chances of that are pretty good.

    Duncan should still be the 2nd best guy out of that lot for this year, so if you want to win now (and no reason you shouldn't) I'd go LeBron/Duncan/Rubio.

  • TekTek Member, League - Heroes Keeper League Posts: 79

    I'd go LeBron/Duncan/Rubio.

    If you're in win-now mode, that would likely be your best option.
    Future mode, Oladipo or Monroe might be a wash.

  • RedhopefulRedhopeful Member, Moderator, League - Bonanza Keeper League, League - Battle of the Sports Forums Posts: 182 mod

    Duncan may be the 2nd best guy , but I could see you having a better chance redrafting him than Oladipo. However, it's moot for me as I'd rather see you keep James/Duncan/Oladipo.

  • TheThrillTheThrill Member, League - Bonanza Keeper League Posts: 267

    James Duncan Oladipo for me as well.

  • spud_webb_04spud_webb_04 Member Posts: 54

    i'd go james monroe oladipo
    good chance you can redraft duncan

  • Phil_OPastryPhil_OPastry Member, League - Heroes Keeper League Posts: 368

    I'd go James, Rubio and Oladipo. I think Rubio will have a great year this season with a much faster team and transition based offense. I'm leary of Duncan as he usually sits down the stretch when it is H2H play-off time.

  • lilstinkylynxlilstinkylynx Member, Commish - Heroes Keeper League Posts: 461

    @Phil_OPastry said:
    I'd go James, Rubio and Oladipo. I think Rubio will have a great year this season with a much faster team and transition based offense. I'm leary of Duncan as he usually sits down the stretch when it is H2H play-off time.

    Agreed. I also think you're more likely to get Ducan back in the draft rather than Oladipo depending on what the keepers look like for the rest of the league.

  • daseindasein Member, League - Heroes Keeper League, Commish - Salary Cap League Posts: 1,008
    edited September 2014

    I'm curious as to why everyone thinks Oladipo is going to get snapped up early in this league's draft. It's a shallow keeper- 3 x 12, so it's really only the top 36ish players that are off the board every year. In my experience, the drafts for this type of league approximate a redraft league because there are quality players available to help you win now every year. Also the proportion of teams that already have 3 top shelf keepers- and thus don't need to hang onto future upside- is probably high.

    Both BBM and the Yahoo O-ranks and ADP have Oladipo at around 60, which would be the end of the 2nd round of this year's draft.

    By comaprison, Duncan is around 40 (early 1st round), and Rubio is around 50 which is right between the two. However, given that most quality PGs will already be kept, I think you could reasonably expect Rubio to go for a premium (early 1st round again) if he were to be chucked back in the pool.

    All this is to say, if you plan on redrafting one of those 3, Oladipo must be the most likely to be available if you have a late pick. And if you have an early pick, there should be much better options.

  • lilstinkylynxlilstinkylynx Member, Commish - Heroes Keeper League Posts: 461

    @dasein said:
    I'm curious as to why everyone thinks Oladipo is going to get snapped up early in this league's draft. It's a shallow keeper- 3 x 12, so it's really only the top 36ish players that are off the board every year. In my experience, the drafts for this type of league approximate a redraft league because there are quality players available to help you win now every year. Also the proportion of teams that already have 3 top shelf keepers- and thus don't need to hang onto future upside- is probably high.

    Both BBM and the Yahoo O-ranks and ADP have Oladipo at around 60, which would be the end of the 2nd round of this year's draft.

    By comaprison, Duncan is around 40 (early 1st round), and Rubio is around 50 which is right between the two. However, given that most quality PGs will already be kept, I think you could reasonably expect Rubio to go for a premium (early 1st round again) if he were to be chucked back in the pool.

    All this is to say, if you plan on redrafting one of those 3, Oladipo must be the most likely to be available if you have a late pick. And if you have an early pick, there should be much better options.

    Agreed. I think it depends on what the other teams look like. With that said, I would pass on Duncan still. You know that he'll be rested. Yes he may be top 40 (PER) but I'm sure other managers will still hold off on taking him right away since it is a keeper and he has maybe only this year left. I'd rather roll the dice on Ol and hope he makes a big jump. even if he flops, I don't see having Duncan as a third keeper as improving my chances to win any. I'd go with upside and possible keeper material. Even with the better options due to the shallowness of the number of keepers, why not shoot for the fences with your final keeper when the discrepancy in season may be negligible and Duncan is really only good for this year.

  • daseindasein Member, League - Heroes Keeper League, Commish - Salary Cap League Posts: 1,008

    Well, it's not top 40 in PER we're talking about. 40 is where he is currently being taken in yahoo drafts, and where BBM is suggesting he should be taken in redraft leagues. BBM actually have him ranked 30th in per-game value, so that 10 spot drop is due to age/rest factors.

    The choice should be about what gives you the best chance to win this year, not who you want to keep after this season. With only 3 keepers, snake will probably be able to draft someone in the first round that will be better than Oladipo this season, and have just as much long term value- someone like Favors say.

  • massmonicmassmonic Member Posts: 1

    Your comments above were very interesting to me as I am also going though a Duncan or Oladipo keeper decision. 16-team H2H 10-cat (double-double) 3 keeper.

  • daseindasein Member, League - Heroes Keeper League, Commish - Salary Cap League Posts: 1,008

    @massmonic the dub-dub cat changes the calculus a bit for you. Duncan is so far ahead of the other guys because of that, you pretty much have to keep him right?

    You may well be able to redraft Oladipo (or someone better) in the first round too.

  • RedhopefulRedhopeful Member, Moderator, League - Bonanza Keeper League, League - Battle of the Sports Forums Posts: 182 mod

    Seeing a ton of support for Rubio but don't understand it. First, I'm not a fan of pairing him with Lebron. In a three man keeper, it makes sense to move forward with the best fitting trio, and those two together don't fit the plan. As a few have mentioned, one is likely to draft keeper worthy guys in the first few rounds or so, thus there is a good chance Rubio wouldn't even be keeper material for the following season. This is especially true if you're not bullish on his fantasy ceiling. I'm not and expect Oladipo to have better value in the near future, hence why I recommend keeping him over Rubio.

  • silentjimsilentjim Member, Moderator, Commish - Bonanza Keeper League, Commish - Salary Cap League, League - Battle of the Sports Forums Posts: 547 mod

    @Redhopeful said:
    Seeing a ton of support for Rubio but don't understand it. First, I'm not a fan of pairing him with Lebron. In a three man keeper, it makes sense to move forward with the best fitting trio, and those two together don't fit the plan. As a few have mentioned, one is likely to draft keeper worthy guys in the first few rounds or so, thus there is a good chance Rubio wouldn't even be keeper material for the following season. This is especially true if you're not bullish on his fantasy ceiling. I'm not and expect Oladipo to have better value in the near future, hence why I recommend keeping him over Rubio.

    I'm a little shocked about the Rubio love as well. I'm not liking where he or Rondo are going and I see most people getting bit in the butt with them. Even in H2H having two great cats, but subpar in all the others is very troublesome. Rubio would need to excel in one more category at least for me to think he should be kept or at least give him a thought. But I don't see him scoring more, hitting more threes, or shooting better from the floor.

  • daseindasein Member, League - Heroes Keeper League, Commish - Salary Cap League Posts: 1,008

    I wouldn't call it love for Rubio, but of the options given he should be the 3rd best player this year. He was 60th per game last year and shouldn't be any worse. In fact given his age we should expect incremental improvement.

    I think it's important to keep in mind that the keepers are being chosen for this year. Keeping them now does not lock you into keeping them next time and a million things can and will happen between now and then. You keep the best players now, which not only gives you the best chance to win now, but gives you more options in the trade market.

    If a young guy projects to be elite in the near future, thats one thing, but I don't think either Oladipo or Monroe fit that description.

  • snakehuynhsnakehuynh Member, League - Salary Cap League Posts: 123

    I'm definitely in win mode, this is a good chunk of cash league, and it might be surprising to everybody but I won the league with this team, beating 5-4, 5-4, 5-4 of the 3 top teams on my way to a surprise championship. By the standings I'm last to pick, so back-to-back picks on the turn. I'm pretty sure Monroe will be available to me later in the draft, Duncan and Oladipo has a chance to drop to me in the 4th, depending on how people view them. Rubio I'm kind of intrigue what happens to him since Love is gone, and his elite assist and steals pair nice with Lebron. Oladipo I was high on and since Nelson/Aflallo is gone he has the reigns at the guard position. I'm trying to get persuaded to change my mind.

  • Phil_OPastryPhil_OPastry Member, League - Heroes Keeper League Posts: 368

    I still go with LeBron, Rubio and Oladipo.

  • Fenris_77Fenris_77 Member, League - Bonanza Keeper League, League - Salary Cap League Posts: 215

    LeBron and Oladipo for sure if I'm picking, and probably Duncan if I'm looking to take a another shot at a title.

    Short Keepers may sort of approximate redrafts, but there's always a handful of teams drafting youth and whatnot, and Oladipo has exactly the right kind of buzz right now to get snapped up quickly. Rubio is a headache, so I'm fine with throwing him back in the pool and see if he falls to you on the turn. Monroe is kind of in the same boat.

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