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2014-2015 Busts

silentjimsilentjim Member, Moderator, Commish - Bonanza Keeper League, Commish - Salary Cap League, League - Battle of the Sports Forums Posts: 519 mod

Related to the Sleepers discussion, who are your busts or players you're avoiding? Why?

Comments

  • Phil_OPastryPhil_OPastry Member, League - Heroes Keeper League Posts: 351

    Paul George... :P I'm avoiding Ryan Anderson, McGee and definitely Derrick Rose - obviously due to injury concerns. I'm avoiding Jameer Nelson, Felton and Harris until I know what the Dallas back court rotation is going to be like. I don't think Love will be as high as some expect given the competition he'll face for points and rebounds on his team. I'll probably avoid Horford too and Pekovic as neither can stay healthy. Ilyasova is another - although, I think he could actually be a sneaky pick up at the right point in the draft. I also think Isaiah Thomas will not live up to his draft spot coming off the bench should Phoenix resign Bledsoe.

  • silentjimsilentjim Member, Moderator, Commish - Bonanza Keeper League, Commish - Salary Cap League, League - Battle of the Sports Forums Posts: 519 mod

    This seems like a list of every player I'm targeting! hahahaha

  • Phil_OPastryPhil_OPastry Member, League - Heroes Keeper League Posts: 351

    Well, you should be able to get them for a bit cheaper than you otherwise would.

  • Fenris_77Fenris_77 Member, League - Bonanza Keeper League, League - Salary Cap League Posts: 215

    Westbrook is a little high unless you're playing 8 cat. I don't like Irving this year nearly as much as some other people, although that's not quite the same thing as saying his ranking is bad. Howard at 38? Hah. Moving on ... I'm passing on Kobe this year. I agree that Anderson is wonky at 34 too, although he could certainly get there of healthy. Rose and Wade? Pass and pass.

    I'm on the fence about Rondo.

  • RedhopefulRedhopeful Member, Moderator, League - Bonanza Keeper League, League - Battle of the Sports Forums Posts: 182 mod

    Yep, the near cripples are scaring me away - Kobe, DWade, BLopez, Ryno, etc.

    Does anyone fear Love or Irving with LeBron standing next to them?

  • Fenris_77Fenris_77 Member, League - Bonanza Keeper League, League - Salary Cap League Posts: 215

    Love I still like a lot. Irving less so. I think Love will gobble rebounds and take an efficiency bump, the combination of which should, IMO, offset the likely drop in three ball. Plus maybe even more Ast since he now has teammates who can, you know, shoot and finish and stuff. That's the theory anyway. I worry about Irving, but only to the extend of thinking he might be a third round guy rather than an early second round guy.

  • Phil_OPastryPhil_OPastry Member, League - Heroes Keeper League Posts: 351

    You don't see Varajoa cutting into Love's rebounds @Fenris_77?

  • Fenris_77Fenris_77 Member, League - Bonanza Keeper League, League - Salary Cap League Posts: 215

    Not really. Love's rebound totals were already being held down by his insane three ball attempts. If he spends a little more time on the offensive glass it'll balance out just fine IMO. I worry more about Varejao actually. I always favor the better rebounder in cases like this and Love, IMO anyway, is the best rebounder in the league right now.

  • Phil_OPastryPhil_OPastry Member, League - Heroes Keeper League Posts: 351

    I think Spencer Hawes will take a big dip in value now that he is backing up DeAndre Jordan.

  • Phil_OPastryPhil_OPastry Member, League - Heroes Keeper League Posts: 351

    What kind of hit do you think Irving's assists take? I can see him taking more 3's and being less ball dominant.

  • Fenris_77Fenris_77 Member, League - Bonanza Keeper League, League - Salary Cap League Posts: 215

    Hawes I still like as a later round guy. I think he may get more minutes than people think, although obviously a big drop off from last year. Irving, yeah. Less Ast, more threes, and hopefully (for anyone who pays ADP for him) better efficiency. I'm just not sure how they're going to use him.

  • Phil_OPastryPhil_OPastry Member, League - Heroes Keeper League Posts: 351

    Another player I'm staying away from... Kobe. Where are you guys seeing him go in mocks?

  • Fenris_77Fenris_77 Member, League - Bonanza Keeper League, League - Salary Cap League Posts: 215

    I've seen him go in the 6th, which is madness. I won't be drafting him this year I don't think. I try not to be that desperate for a home run that early in any draft. Maybe I lose out on a little value there, but I think the potential downside is far worse than the limited upside.

  • daseindasein Member, League - Heroes Keeper League, Commish - Salary Cap League Posts: 962
    edited September 2014

    Wall as a 1st rounder has me a little puzzeled. 27th per game last year and even worse after the all star break. I'm a fan, but I'm not seeing where the improvement is gonna come to essentially double his value, which is what would be required to make him a top 12 guy.

    I get that if you chuck out TOs, he's in the conversation but still...you can make similar 'if you ignore xyz' arguments about plenty of guys.

    I'm not saying he's going to be a bust exactly, but I think he'll struggle to return an investment of a late 1st round pick.

  • RedhopefulRedhopeful Member, Moderator, League - Bonanza Keeper League, League - Battle of the Sports Forums Posts: 182 mod

    Agree about Wall. In both BBM's mock draft and our current BOSF draft, Wall went in the first 14 picks. I certainly wouldn't go that route.

  • Phil_OPastryPhil_OPastry Member, League - Heroes Keeper League Posts: 351

    Perhaps the teams grabbing Wall are banking on Beal being healthy, which is quite foolish. I also wonder how much of Wall's assist drop off now that he doesn't have "Contract year Ariza" playing with him.

  • Fenris_77Fenris_77 Member, League - Bonanza Keeper League, League - Salary Cap League Posts: 215

    I hear that Paul Pierce guy is OK though, so maybe the lack of Ariza won't be a huge issue.

  • TekTek Member, League - Heroes Keeper League Posts: 76

    Counter to that, Pierce is not as agile as he used to be and typically the majority of Pierce's points have come from his own creation in ISO.
    I don't think that precludes him from running screen and rolls with Wall, but Pierce won't be as "open" as Ariza got last year.

  • spud_webb_04spud_webb_04 Member Posts: 54

    i was actually thinking were i would draft kobe if he fell of a cliff but i think i will stay far away, just retain my mental heath lol

  • shadowmosesshadowmoses Member Posts: 5

    Larry Sanders (an unconventional pick due to his low ADP, but I think people banking on a comeback from him are going to be disappointed). He could very well end up being a sleeper instead, but with the possible competition for minutes, a coach in Kidd who may or may not be committed to him, and an ownership already fed up with his demeanor, he's already on thin ice . I think too many people are assuming that just because he 's under contract for big money and years that he'll be given every possible chance to reclaim his value. Maybe, but I'm not entirely sold on that happening. The Bucks roster has a lot of young, talented players who also will need their share of minutes. There is still potential here of course, and it is well worth at the right price, but I'm leaning toward staying away at the moment.

    Others busts: JSmoove, Beal, Big Al, Brook Lopez, Tony Parker, and Iggy.

    Could Jsmoove be headed to a 6th man role, and would he even take to such a role? Will he embrace the idea of better shot selection and efficiency? Will his minutes take a hit with the need to have himself, Monroe and Drummond rotated on the floor? Too many questions for me to stomach.

    Beal's stress fracture and thereafter nagging injuries from last season have me a bit worried. I like the talent, but given that threes can be had much later in the draft for far less risk, I'm likely passing on him.

    Big Al has a lot of miles on his wheels, and his plantar fasciitis isn't likely to disappear despite his initial clean bill of health. I generally like my top picks to be as safe as possible, and to take my risks later on in the draft. Moreover, Big Al doesn't have the upside to justify the extra bit of risk in taking him, however little that may be.

    Lopez needs no explaining. Ranked 22nd on Yahoo, to go along with his injury history and lack of rebounds from a center? No thanks.

    Parker is another case of a player who doesn't give you the numbers you'd expect from a player at his position, given his lack of steals, threes, and assists. Thrown in the missed time due to rest and/or injuries and his relatively high ranking (53rd on Yahoo), and you have a recipe for a player to avoid

    I expect Green to take the starting SF role from Iggy at some point, even if it doesn't happen from the getgo. His numbers have been trending downward across the board as it is. To be honest, he'd probably benefit from leading the second unit, but I'm still not going to touch him.

  • silentjimsilentjim Member, Moderator, Commish - Bonanza Keeper League, Commish - Salary Cap League, League - Battle of the Sports Forums Posts: 519 mod

    I actually think Al Jefferson is one of the safer late round first picks

  • Phil_OPastryPhil_OPastry Member, League - Heroes Keeper League Posts: 351

    @silentjim I agree. Big Al was a beast for the Bobcats/Hornets from the All-Star break on. He was a fantasy stud.

  • CurryPorkCurryPork Member Posts: 3
    edited September 2014

    @Redhopeful said:
    Agree about Wall. In both BBM's mock draft and our current BOSF draft, Wall went in the first 14 picks. I certainly wouldn't go that route.

    Hi Red, can you post a link to the current BOSF draft?

  • deadshot11deadshot11 Member Posts: 19

    Al Jeff is super solid. Even coming off an injury last year, he was still money.

    I'm not high on Love. I don't think he should be considered in the top 5 at all. People already mentioned 3's down and efficiency up. But I just don't see his game mixing well with Lebron's as is. One or both of them will have to alter their game. I think his scoring is going to be down by at least 3-4 points. It's essentially what happened to Chris Bosh when he joined Miami. He had high scoring because he was the only option in Toronto. When he's 3rd string? Dropped from end of the 1st/early 2nd to, what, like 3rd or 4th round? I don't think the drop will be near that big for Love, but if my pick is in the middle of the 1st round, I might be passing.

  • RedhopefulRedhopeful Member, Moderator, League - Bonanza Keeper League, League - Battle of the Sports Forums Posts: 182 mod

    @CurryPork said:
    Hi Red, can you post a link to the current BOSF draft?

    Here is a LINK, but I'm pretty sure it's still not viewable by the non-paying public.

  • daseindasein Member, League - Heroes Keeper League, Commish - Salary Cap League Posts: 962

    Why is everyone assuming Love will be the 3rd option?

    He's a much better player than Bosh ever was and his offensive rating is substantially higher than Kyrie's- (about 120 vs 110 per basketballreference) . A smart coaching staff will understand that.

  • deadshot11deadshot11 Member Posts: 19

    @dasein said:
    Why is everyone assuming Love will be the 3rd option?

    He's a much better player than Bosh ever was and his offensive rating is substantially higher than Kyrie's- (about 120 vs 110 per basketballreference) . A smart coaching staff will understand that.

    Even if he's the 2nd option, do you expect him to get the same amount of shot attempts as he did in Minnesota? That's pretty much an impossibility. The question isn't if he'll lose shot attempts, it's how many. If he also loses 3pt attempts, his value will surely take a hit.

    It doesn't have to be a huge lose of value for him to drop out of the top 5.

  • daseindasein Member, League - Heroes Keeper League, Commish - Salary Cap League Posts: 962

    @deadshot11‌

    I don't expect him to be in the top 5, and I haven't seen anyone that is projecting him to, so not really sure why that's a question.

    I do expect him to be in the top 8 though. Yes, shots will go down but efficiency should go up to somewhat offset that loss in value.

    And being a big who is a prolific 3pt shooter is part of what makes him a special player. I don't see why the Cavs would go away from that. Sure, shot attempts overall will go down as I said, but that's precisely what accounts for the slide from 5 to 7/8.

  • Fenris_77Fenris_77 Member, League - Bonanza Keeper League, League - Salary Cap League Posts: 215

    I think people also underestimate how insane his rebounding totals could be if he's not launching threes all the time. He'll still get you some nice out of position threes too, I'm sure, so there's still value there, but the ground he has to make up on the efficiency end to counterbalance the lost threes isn't maybe as high as some people seem to think (not when you assume, as I do, that the rebounding will bounce up).

  • daseindasein Member, League - Heroes Keeper League, Commish - Salary Cap League Posts: 962

    @Fenris_583677‌ True story.

    I was reading Yahoo's fantasy mailbag for hahas yesterday, and the guy that was answering the questions there reckons Wall is a good choice at 7 but wouldn't take Love in the first round at all.

    So a guy who is a legit top 10 player in Per 36 is a big risk because he's about to loose some usage, but a dude who has only sniffed top 50 once is a good bet?

    :'( I'm just sad for the kids.

  • Fenris_77Fenris_77 Member, League - Bonanza Keeper League, League - Salary Cap League Posts: 215

    I don't know where the big sites get these guys sometimes. :( I can respect a guy who's fantasy opinion differs from mine, but that really does seem like poor advice from someone who's (probably) getting paid to dispense the opposite.

    The absolute highest I can even pretend to like Wall is on the turn at the end of the first round. Even then there would have to be some sort of cunnin' plan or wacky categories for me to actually be able to get behind the idea rather than just not hating the pick. Mostly I think I'm just going to let other dudes draft him this year.

  • Phil_OPastryPhil_OPastry Member, League - Heroes Keeper League Posts: 351
    edited September 2014

    Is there any reason whatsoever to think that Gerald Green can come close to his yahoo rank of 83? I know he did well last season but, last season smells a bit like a one-off fantasy career year for the guy. Any one else avoiding him like Chlamydia, or do you guys see him as an upside type guy?

  • Fenris_77Fenris_77 Member, League - Bonanza Keeper League, League - Salary Cap League Posts: 215

    I want no part of Green this year for the most part unless he sinks like a stone. I don't where the minutes are going to come from for him to repeat that production.

  • RedhopefulRedhopeful Member, Moderator, League - Bonanza Keeper League, League - Battle of the Sports Forums Posts: 182 mod

    Unless we find out Green has a friend like Shane Stant. >:)

  • Fenris_77Fenris_77 Member, League - Bonanza Keeper League, League - Salary Cap League Posts: 215

    There's always the Stant angle to consider, very true. So, barring a tire iron to someone's leg, I don't see where Green's minute are going to come from, or at least enough minutes to repeat last season's success.

  • daseindasein Member, League - Heroes Keeper League, Commish - Salary Cap League Posts: 962

    I like to be mindful of bias, and there is a large recency bias flag waiving over Green's head. Let us not forget that he was out of the league not so long ago. The likelihood that last year was a fluke, combined with the crowded roster means I have no interest outside of a late round flyer.

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